A company is about to develop and then market a newproduct. It wants to build a simulation
Question:
A company is about to develop and then market a newproduct. It wants to build a simulation model for the entire process, and one key uncertain input is the development cost. For each of the following scenarios, choose an appropriate distribution together with its parameters, justify your choice in words, and use @RISK to draw your chosen distribution. a. Company experts have no idea what the distribution of the development cost is. All they can state is"We are 95% sure it will be at least $450,000, and we are 95% sure it will be no more than $650,000."b. Company experts can still make the same statement as in part a, but now they can also state: "We believe the distribution is symmetric, reasonably bell-shaped, and its most likely value is about $ 550,000."c. Company experts can still make the same statement as in part a, but now they can also state: "We believe the distribution is skewed to the right, and its most likely value is about $500,000."
This is the section I need help with but you need the first part to complete it.
**** Continuing the preceding problem, suppose that another key uncertain input is the development time, which is measured in an integer number of months. For each of the following scenarios, choose an appropriate distribution together with its parameters, justify your choice in words, and use @RISK to draw your chosen distribution.
a. Company experts believe the development time will be from 6 to 10 months, but they have absolutely no idea which of these will result.
b. Company experts believe the development time will be from 6 to 10 months. They believe the probabilities of these five possible values will increase linearly to a most likely value at 8 months and will then decrease linearly.
c. Company experts believe the development time will be from 6 to 10 months. They believe that 8 months is twice as likely as either 7 months or 9 months and that either of these latter possibilities is three times as likely as either 6 months or 10 months.