A wood manufacturing is looking for a new forest.. They spend $12 million initially in survey attempts. There is a 40% chance that they can locate a suitable site using these surveys. If they cannot, they lose the initial investment. If they locate a site, they will begin digging in year 1. 

It will cost $112 million in year 1 and year 2 to explore the site. There is a 50% chance that after year 2, they have a productive forest generating $51 million a year for the next 15 years. There is a 30% chance they have a productive forest that generates $33 million a year for the next 10 years. 

There is a 20% chance the mine is a bust and they must abandon it for an additional $25 million in year 3. 

Draw the timeline and decision tree for the problem. 

Calculate the probabilities for all scenarios. 

What is the NPV if the discount rate is 10%? What is the NPV if the discount rate is 5%?

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