Complete the highlighted areas in the Markov analysis below to forecast availabilities for the next year, by
Question:
Complete the highlighted areas in the Markov analysis below to forecast availabilities for the next year, by job category. The notes below the table will assist you in doing this.
Transition Probability Matrix | 3-Year Trend | ||||||
FTSA | PTSA | ADM | DM | Exit | |||
(1) Full-time sales associate (FTSA) | 0.50 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.30 | ||
(2) Part-time sales associate (PTSA) | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.18 | ||
(3) Assistant department manager (ADM) | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.14 | 0.06 | ||
(4) Department manager (DM) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.35 | ||
Forecast of Availabilities | Next Year (projected) | ||||||
FTSA | PTSA | ADM | DM | Exit | |||
Current Workforce | |||||||
(1) Full-time sales associate (FTSA) | 15,120 | 7,560 | 2,268 | 0 | |||
(2) Part-time sales associate (PTSA) | 3,780 | 1,134 | 76 | 0 | |||
(3) Assistant department manager (ADM) | 3,780 | 189 | 0 | 530 | |||
(4) Department manager (DM) | 1,210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Forecasted Availabilities by Job | 8,883 | 3,667 | 5,868 |
Note: The information below shows the calculations behind the numbers in several of the already completed cells of the Markov analysis. Similar calculations will allow you to complete the table. | ||
7,560 = | 0.50 × 15,120 | Number of current FTSA expected to remain as FTSA |
2,268 = | 0.15 x 15,120 | Number of current FTSA expected to transition to PTSA |
1,134 = | 0.30 × 3,780 | Number of current PTSA expected to transition to FTSA |
189 = | 0.05 × 3,780 | Number of current ADM expected to transition to FTSA |
Probability and Random Processes With Applications to Signal Processing and Communications
ISBN: 978-0123869814
2nd edition
Authors: Scott Miller, Donald Childers