Consider the following time series: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 68 65 59 2....

 

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Consider the following time series: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 68 65 59 2. 49 41 51 3 61 63 56 4 82 85 76 (a) Choose a time series plot. (i) 100 80 60 40 20 1 2 3 4 8. Period (t) 10 11 12 (ii) 100 80 60 40 20 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 11 12 Period (t) -0- (iii) 100 80 60 40 20 ++++ 8. Period (t) 1 2 3 5 6 7 10 11 12 (iv) 100 80 60 40 20 ++++ 1 2 3 4 10 6. Period(t) 8. 11 12 Graph (iii) What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern? Horizontal pattern, with seasonality (b) Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: Qtri = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank. (Example: -300) Qtri + Qtr2 + Qtr3 (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. Year Quarter Ft 4 1. 4 4 4 4 2. 3. Consider the following time series: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 68 65 59 2. 49 41 51 3 61 63 56 4 82 85 76 (a) Choose a time series plot. (i) 100 80 60 40 20 1 2 3 4 8. Period (t) 10 11 12 (ii) 100 80 60 40 20 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 11 12 Period (t) -0- (iii) 100 80 60 40 20 ++++ 8. Period (t) 1 2 3 5 6 7 10 11 12 (iv) 100 80 60 40 20 ++++ 1 2 3 4 10 6. Period(t) 8. 11 12 Graph (iii) What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern? Horizontal pattern, with seasonality (b) Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: Qtri = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank. (Example: -300) Qtri + Qtr2 + Qtr3 (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. Year Quarter Ft 4 1. 4 4 4 4 2. 3.