(a) What is the problem with using a linear congruential random number generator in a Monte...

  

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(a) What is the problem with using a linear congruential random number generator in a Monte Carlo Simulation? (Answer in 4 lines or less). . Start Finish The above network represents the logic for a project with uncertain activity durations. • Activity A has a deterministic duration of 15 days. • Activity B has a triangular distribution with a lower bound at 10, a peak at 15, and an upper bound at 20. 10 15 20 The pdf for the duration of activity C is given in the table below: Time (days) 15 20 30 (c) (d) Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 (b) Perform 10 simulation runs for the above network using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. A table of random numbers is attached for this purpose. Use the acceptance-rejection method for activity B. Identify the critical path in each case. Your answer should be presented in tabular form. What is the criticality index for activity A? What is the probability that the project will extend beyond 32 days? Table A.1. RANDOM DIGITS 96908 52146 30258 61674 86689 94834 94737 08225 35614 24826 88319 05595 87259 85982 13296 89326 74863 99986 63856 14016 18527 11634 66612 54714 46783 61934 30712 58582 05704 23172 69607 24145 43886 86477 37792 27282 94107 41967 01488 56680 73847 66248 97697 38244 51453 03462 61157 64930 92168 82530 19271 36463 07331 54590 47097 78780 04210 50918 65366 86999 00546 87084 80400 45972 44111 99708 94554 13863 88239 91624 29602 29464 99219 20308 94135 94661 87724 88187 87926 34092 34334 55064 85039 19212 59160 83537 66070 38480 74636 45095 30961 77755 31567 53597 08490 73544 72573 07821 24759 47266 21747 72496 09056 10709 69314 11449 40531 02917 37025 80731 26179 16039 02570 80164 36108 73689 19922 29923 43070 22671 00152 81326 36917 60370 80812 87225 82922 03919 02312 31106 46724 22558 64303 78804 16108 61281 86823 20286 74541 82919 31285 78166 82521 79261 12570 94672 07912 26153 10531 56406 70023 27734 57805 67726 07516 45979 94264 77009 08682 76735 46509 17696 89669 75808 01850 05317 21425 04743 11108 44834 55441 51217 54786 61130 26204 15016 96499 12765 03337 41583 44484 75377 45935 03694 00022 40471 10930 12715 22254 27685 30445 33456 42822 45390 82109 62191 43152 01610 54414 19856 86576 79337 87680 72550 31388 26809 77258 99360 17190 75522 15687 07161 99745 00466 88068 68631 98745 97810 58701 57365 74759 68558 06391 50248 $3496 51730 03500 07471 67566 31635 99057 55832 21012 01518 26342 35712 03898 82072 70607 63099 47564 63142 20926 25282 46439 40173 57753 41415 81421 60170 78462 96265 72758 60851 42986 57518 92362 21979 12282 97033 50391 59554 95878 74587 82697 73227 49137 34029 28111 86043 04940 85665 77869 16480 88937 94466 67518 63966 33203 18784 47554 59869 67177 92600 55572 48767 35886 85199 40494 03126 47312 90527 21756 39578 40851 89428 16368 57659 79424 02850 47118 23790 55043 44335 05573 17470 25900 05762 14025 24909 70650 56117 06707 38391 12183 55292 01159 41319 03121 14497 95663 01786 75739 20046 90230 09603 09757 23973 50807 97714 39119 46455 09890 58457 55360 13676 31177 60906 13160 13482 13103 49069 59578 64783 53503 43972 31388 70803 66320 17245 $7604 75117 91080 90035 89393 88326 98145 98082 28013 69264 (a) What is the problem with using a linear congruential random number generator in a Monte Carlo Simulation? (Answer in 4 lines or less). . Start Finish The above network represents the logic for a project with uncertain activity durations. • Activity A has a deterministic duration of 15 days. • Activity B has a triangular distribution with a lower bound at 10, a peak at 15, and an upper bound at 20. 10 15 20 The pdf for the duration of activity C is given in the table below: Time (days) 15 20 30 (c) (d) Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 (b) Perform 10 simulation runs for the above network using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. A table of random numbers is attached for this purpose. Use the acceptance-rejection method for activity B. Identify the critical path in each case. Your answer should be presented in tabular form. What is the criticality index for activity A? What is the probability that the project will extend beyond 32 days? Table A.1. RANDOM DIGITS 96908 52146 30258 61674 86689 94834 94737 08225 35614 24826 88319 05595 87259 85982 13296 89326 74863 99986 63856 14016 18527 11634 66612 54714 46783 61934 30712 58582 05704 23172 69607 24145 43886 86477 37792 27282 94107 41967 01488 56680 73847 66248 97697 38244 51453 03462 61157 64930 92168 82530 19271 36463 07331 54590 47097 78780 04210 50918 65366 86999 00546 87084 80400 45972 44111 99708 94554 13863 88239 91624 29602 29464 99219 20308 94135 94661 87724 88187 87926 34092 34334 55064 85039 19212 59160 83537 66070 38480 74636 45095 30961 77755 31567 53597 08490 73544 72573 07821 24759 47266 21747 72496 09056 10709 69314 11449 40531 02917 37025 80731 26179 16039 02570 80164 36108 73689 19922 29923 43070 22671 00152 81326 36917 60370 80812 87225 82922 03919 02312 31106 46724 22558 64303 78804 16108 61281 86823 20286 74541 82919 31285 78166 82521 79261 12570 94672 07912 26153 10531 56406 70023 27734 57805 67726 07516 45979 94264 77009 08682 76735 46509 17696 89669 75808 01850 05317 21425 04743 11108 44834 55441 51217 54786 61130 26204 15016 96499 12765 03337 41583 44484 75377 45935 03694 00022 40471 10930 12715 22254 27685 30445 33456 42822 45390 82109 62191 43152 01610 54414 19856 86576 79337 87680 72550 31388 26809 77258 99360 17190 75522 15687 07161 99745 00466 88068 68631 98745 97810 58701 57365 74759 68558 06391 50248 $3496 51730 03500 07471 67566 31635 99057 55832 21012 01518 26342 35712 03898 82072 70607 63099 47564 63142 20926 25282 46439 40173 57753 41415 81421 60170 78462 96265 72758 60851 42986 57518 92362 21979 12282 97033 50391 59554 95878 74587 82697 73227 49137 34029 28111 86043 04940 85665 77869 16480 88937 94466 67518 63966 33203 18784 47554 59869 67177 92600 55572 48767 35886 85199 40494 03126 47312 90527 21756 39578 40851 89428 16368 57659 79424 02850 47118 23790 55043 44335 05573 17470 25900 05762 14025 24909 70650 56117 06707 38391 12183 55292 01159 41319 03121 14497 95663 01786 75739 20046 90230 09603 09757 23973 50807 97714 39119 46455 09890 58457 55360 13676 31177 60906 13160 13482 13103 49069 59578 64783 53503 43972 31388 70803 66320 17245 $7604 75117 91080 90035 89393 88326 98145 98082 28013 69264