After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company
Question:
After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company began an upward climb of record sales. Suppose the figures shown here are the DeBourgh monthly sales figures from January 2001 through December 2009 (in $1,000s).
a) Produce a time series plot. Are there any trends evident in the data? Does DeBourgh have a seasonal component to its sales?
b) Deseasonalize the data using Multiplicative model with a 0.5 weighted moving average. Produce a time series plot of the deseasonalized data and add a trendline.
c) Forecast the sales from January to December of the year 2010.
d) Include a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurring.
SALES ($1,000s) | |||||||||
Month | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
January | 139.7 | 165.1 | 177.8 | 228.6 | 266.7 | 431.8 | 381 | 431.8 | 495.3 |
February | 114.3 | 177.8 | 203.2 | 254 | 317.5 | 457.2 | 406.4 | 444.5 | 533.4 |
March | 101.6 | 177.8 | 228.6 | 266.7 | 368.3 | 457.2 | 431.8 | 495.3 | 635 |
April | 152.4 | 203.2 | 279.4 | 342.9 | 431.8 | 482.6 | 457.2 | 533.4 | 673.1 |
May | 215.9 | 241.3 | 317.5 | 355.6 | 457.2 | 533.4 | 495.3 | 558.8 | 749.3 |
June | 228.6 | 279.4 | 330.2 | 406.4 | 571.5 | 622.3 | 584.2 | 647.7 | 812.8 |
July | 215.9 | 292.1 | 368.3 | 444.5 | 546.1 | 660.4 | 609.6 | 673.1 | 800.1 |
August | 190.5 | 317.5 | 355.6 | 431.8 | 482.6 | 520.7 | 558.8 | 660.4 | 736.6 |
September | 177.8 | 203.2 | 241.3 | 330.2 | 431.8 | 508 | 508 | 609.6 | 685.8 |
October | 139.7 | 177.8 | 215.9 | 330.2 | 406.4 | 482.6 | 495.3 | 584.2 | 635 |
November | 139.7 | 165.1 | 215.9 | 304.8 | 393.7 | 457.2 | 444.5 | 520.7 | 622.3 |
December | 152.4 | 177.8 | 203.2 | 292.1 | 406.4 | 431.8 | 419.1 | 482.6 | 622.3 |
Finance Applications and Theory
ISBN: 978-0077861681
3rd edition
Authors: Marcia Cornett, Troy Adair