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AutoSave Home Insert Draw Design Layout Times New... 11 ' ' Paste B I U ab x, A Page 2 of 2 W= Assignment 1 OMGT2199 2024A BD References Aa D A Po abca A Mailings Review View Tell me Comments Editing Share A T AaBbCcDdEe AaBbCcDdEe > Normal No Spacing Styles Pane Dictate Sensitivity Add-ins Editor Update from Project 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 18 T 465 words Vietnamese Task 1: Bank Account Forecast A well-known commercial bank in Australia is interested in estimating the number of new bank accounts opened by customers each year. The number of new accounts opened in this bank has increased slowly over the years even during the global financial crisis (20082009). Top management strongly believes that they need a long-term strategic plan for the bank which is a 5-year forecast for the number of new accounts opened. To achieve this aim, the bank operations manager examined past account data and also extracted the employment rate over 30 years (1991-2020). The resulting data are shown in below table: No of new Year account(000) GDP Per Capita GDP Per No of new Capita (000A$) Year account(000) (000A$) 1991 3.336 18.8218 2006 6.207 36.04492 1992 3.609 18.57012 2007 6.026 40.96005 1993 4.003 17.63453 2008 8.466 49.60166 1994 7.107 18.04614 2009 7.528 42.77236 1995 2.686 20.31963 2010 9.470 52.02213 1996 4.843 21.86133 2011 11.719 62.51783 1997 3.111 23.4686 2012 11.635 68.01215 1998 2.753 21.31896 2013 9.558 68.15011 1999 4.622 20.53304 2014 10.618 62.51079 2000 3.913 21.67925 2015 10.759 56.75572 2001 4.148 19.49086 2016 7.528 49.97113 2002 3.647 20.08248 2017 9.204 54.02797 2003 4.207 23.44703 2018 8.759 57.35496 2004 4.271 30.43068 2019 8.776 55.0572 2005 6.866 33.99924 2020 8.835 51.81215 1. Using the following methods forecast for all possible periods. Provide the report with appropriate interpretations for each forecast and show the graph of actual and forecast (5 points) a. Moving average (n=3) (1 point) b. Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.6) (1 point) c. Linear trend (trend projection) (1 point) d. Linear regression (2 points) 2. Discuss which method fits best for the bank's strategic plan to forecast the number of new accounts. You need to justify the selection of one method over another (3 points). 3. Do you think that the exclusion of a part of data (for example, the first 5-10 years) would affect the accuracy of the forecast? Briefly explain. Would such exclusion change your choice of the forecasting method in Question 2? Briefly explain (2 points). Focus + 120% AutoSave Home Insert Draw Design Layout Times New... 11 ' ' Paste B I U ab x, A Page 2 of 2 W= Assignment 1 OMGT2199 2024A BD References Aa D A Po abca A Mailings Review View Tell me Comments Editing Share A T AaBbCcDdEe AaBbCcDdEe > Normal No Spacing Styles Pane Dictate Sensitivity Add-ins Editor Update from Project 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 18 T 465 words Vietnamese Task 1: Bank Account Forecast A well-known commercial bank in Australia is interested in estimating the number of new bank accounts opened by customers each year. The number of new accounts opened in this bank has increased slowly over the years even during the global financial crisis (20082009). Top management strongly believes that they need a long-term strategic plan for the bank which is a 5-year forecast for the number of new accounts opened. To achieve this aim, the bank operations manager examined past account data and also extracted the employment rate over 30 years (1991-2020). The resulting data are shown in below table: No of new Year account(000) GDP Per Capita GDP Per No of new Capita (000A$) Year account(000) (000A$) 1991 3.336 18.8218 2006 6.207 36.04492 1992 3.609 18.57012 2007 6.026 40.96005 1993 4.003 17.63453 2008 8.466 49.60166 1994 7.107 18.04614 2009 7.528 42.77236 1995 2.686 20.31963 2010 9.470 52.02213 1996 4.843 21.86133 2011 11.719 62.51783 1997 3.111 23.4686 2012 11.635 68.01215 1998 2.753 21.31896 2013 9.558 68.15011 1999 4.622 20.53304 2014 10.618 62.51079 2000 3.913 21.67925 2015 10.759 56.75572 2001 4.148 19.49086 2016 7.528 49.97113 2002 3.647 20.08248 2017 9.204 54.02797 2003 4.207 23.44703 2018 8.759 57.35496 2004 4.271 30.43068 2019 8.776 55.0572 2005 6.866 33.99924 2020 8.835 51.81215 1. Using the following methods forecast for all possible periods. Provide the report with appropriate interpretations for each forecast and show the graph of actual and forecast (5 points) a. Moving average (n=3) (1 point) b. Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.6) (1 point) c. Linear trend (trend projection) (1 point) d. Linear regression (2 points) 2. Discuss which method fits best for the bank's strategic plan to forecast the number of new accounts. You need to justify the selection of one method over another (3 points). 3. Do you think that the exclusion of a part of data (for example, the first 5-10 years) would affect the accuracy of the forecast? Briefly explain. Would such exclusion change your choice of the forecasting method in Question 2? Briefly explain (2 points). Focus + 120%