Based on positive results in DT&E and following a successful Operational Test Readiness Review, the SRAW entered

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Question:

Based on positive results in DT&E and following a successful Operational Test Readiness Review, the SRAW entered IOT&E. The IOT&E plan called for three phases with the first phase (20 shots) being focused on squad-level activities in a fixed-position defensive scenario. Results were mixed during this first phase and after a Marine was injured while attempting to employ the SRAW, testing was suspended until a safety investigation could be completed in order to address and/or mitigate any identified risks. That investigation is on-going and testing has not yet resumed.

The Program Manager and Operational Test Director agreed to take advantage of this break in testing to conduct an analysis of the IOT&E results to date. Your assignment is to analyze these test results by answering the questions on page 4 of this lesson.

Note that although this assignment and the Lesson 17 assignment both deal with SRAW testing, the tests in the two assignments are distinct. While the Lesson 17 assignment covers DT&E on one aspect of the SRAW, this assignment covers IOT&E and necessarily looks at the system as a whole.

Lastly, the Probability of Hit numbers provided on page 3 predict how often the SRAW will hit the target for a given number of shots aimed at that target (assumes a successful launch). In reality, the actual Probability of Hit metric spans a continuum with the probabilities varying with, among other things, range to the target, target maneuvering, and the use of countermeasures. The ranges and probabilities provided are simply points on that continuum and are not meant to signify ranges that the SRAW should or should not be used at (the minimum and maximum engagement ranges do that). As such, there is no requirement to take shots at the ranges listed in the Probability of Hit row nor should there be.

Sho t # Time/Date (Apr) Target Range (1) Target Course (2) TGT Speed (km/hr) Motor Function ? SRAW Armed?(3) Tgt Hit?(3) Remarks 1 1000/04 122 095 13 Yes Yes Yes 2 1615/05 289 206 11 Yes Yes Yes High Winds (4) 3 1245/06 197 243 20 Yes No Yes 4 0930/09 594 168 18 Yes Yes No 5 1535/10 393 145 20 No No No Hang Fire (5) 6 1110/11 426 190 5 Yes Yes No 7 0950/12 650 205 19 Yes Yes Yes High Winds (4) 8 1545/12 48 185 7 Yes Yes Yes 9 1300/16 720 175 14 Yes Yes No 10 1345/17 95 255 12 No No No Marine Injured

Notes: (1) Target Range is the distance in meters from the shooter to the target when missile launch was commanded (when the SRAW "trigger" is pulled). Target speed is in km/hr (2) Target course is relative to the shooter with 180 being movement directly towards the shooter and 090/270 being movement perpendicular to the line of sight from the shooter to the target (090 means the target is moving left to right from the shooter's perspective).

(3) Without other mitigating data, interpret "SRAW Armed" as performance of the SRAW's safe-arm device (i.e., did the SRAW arm itself?) and interpret "Tgt Hit" as performance of the SRAW's targeting system.

(4) High winds denotes any shot taken in sustained winds over 20 km/hr

(5) "Hang Fire" means the SRAW motor failed to ignite when the "trigger" was pulled

Key Performance Parameters Production Threshold Production Objective Engagement Envelope 25 - 600 Meters 600 - 800 Meters Probability of hit (stationary target) 0.6 at 300 Meters 0.5 at 600 Meters 0.8 at 300 Meters 0.7 at 600 Meters 0.5 at 800 Meters Probability of hit (moving target) 0.5 at 300 Meters 0.4 at 600 Meters 0.6 at 300 Meters 0.5 at 600 Meters 0.4 at 800 Meters Key System Attributes Production Threshold Production Objective Reliability 0.94 0.97 Critical Technical Parameters Production Threshold Production Objective Minimum Safe Arming Distance 20 Meters 20 Meters

Question 1.

o (A) Given the Threshold and Objective KPP values for the Engagement Envelope (see the table on the previous page) and noting that the results for shots 4 and 9 were essentially the same (in both cases the motor functioned and the SRAW armed itself but both missed the target), describe why not hitting the target on shot 4 is different from not hitting the target on shot 9.

o (B) Which result (if any) is more problematic from a SRAW performance perspective and why?

Question 2.

o (A) When considering shot 4 individually, does the result reflect an individaul failure of the SRAW targeting system? Why or why not?

o (B) When considering shot 5 individually, does the result reflect an individaul failure of the SRAW targeting system? Why or why not?

Question 3.

o (A) Given that IOT&E examines mission effectiveness (in this case target destruction) and assuming that target destruction occurs when a SRAW launches and arms successfully and then hits the target, note that neither shot 3 nor shot 4 destroyed the target. Are these two failures equivalent? Why or why not?

o (B) Which (if any) is more problematic from a SRAW performance perspective and why?

Question 4. What one preliminary positive conclusion might an advocate of the system highlight? Make sure this conclusion is not simply an observation. Also, cite the data used to support the conclusion. As an example, an observation might be that the SRAW hit the target X of Y times. A conclusion might be that based on the results of shots a, b, c, f, g, and j, the system is on track to meet the Threshold Probability of Hit requirement for moving targets.

Question 5. What one preliminary negative conclusion might a critic of the system highlight? Again, make sure this conclusion is not simply an observation. Also, cite the data used to support the conclusion.

Image transcription text

salt-arm device (i.e., did the SRAW arm itself?) and interpret "Tet Hit" as performance of the
SRAW's targeting system. (4) High winds denotes any shot taken in sustained winds over 20 km/hr (5)
"Hang Fire" means the SRAW motor failed to ignite when the "trigger&qu...