Compute the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a six-month forward contract. The transaction requires the investor to deliver $12.7
Question:
Compute the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a six-month forward contract. The transaction requires the investor to deliver $12.7 million in 180 days and receive €10 million in exchange. Assume that the current spot rate is $1.26/1€ and the annualized interest rate is 4% on a six-month zero coupon bond and 3% on a six-month zero coupon Euro bond.
Again, assume the variance/co-variance matrix (on daily returns) across those instruments are as follows:
Six-Month $ Bond Six-Month $ Bond Six-Month $ Bond
Six-Month $ Bond 0.0000314
Six-Month € Bond 0.0000043 0.0000260
Spot $/€ Rates 0.0000012 0.0000013 0.0000032
(a) Compute the value of the short position in the zero coupon dollar bond.
(b) Compute the value of the long position in the zero coupon euro bond (in $ terms), holding spot rate fixed.
(c) Compute the VaR for this forward Contract.
(d) Compute the daily VaR for this forward contract assuming returns are normally distributed with a 90% confidential interval.