Consider the following scenario:  

Imaginia is a small software startup that is looking to invest in an R&D project which critically depends upon a court ruling, expected within the next year, regarding whether one of Google's patents is considered "standard essential."  If the court rules that this patent is "standard essential," then Imaginia will have to pay a lower licensing fee to Google than otherwise. Imaginia expects the following financials associated with the R&D project: 

1. The fixed cost investment of the R&D project is $1.5 million.  The rate of interest can be assumed fixed at 10% for the relevant time span.
2. Imaginia expects that the R&D project will yield returns for up to 10 years from the year of investment. 
3. If Imaginia invests in the R&D project today (Year 0), then it can expect $500,000 in cash flows associated with the R&D project this year.
4. From Year 1 on, there are two scenarios regarding its cash-flows, each likely to occur with a probability of 0.5.  In Scenario 1, Google's patent is deemed "standard essential," and the lower royalty rates to Google imply Imaginia will have $900,000 every year as its cash-flow for the next 10 years.  In Scenario 2, Google's patent is NOT deemed standard essential, and the higher royalty rates to Google will cause Imaginia to make $100,000 in cash-flow for the next 10 years. 

Please answer the following questions. Showing your work (and rationale) as applicable will help you get partial credit even if the numbers are not completely accurate.

1. What is the expected NPV of the project if Imaginia invests today?                                          

If Imaginia chooses to wait till next year, when the uncertainty associated with the court ruling is resolved, what is the expected NPV of the project under Scenario 1?  Under Scenario 2?                                          

What, if any, is the value of the option to wait one year to make the decision?  

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

Expected NPV if Imaginia Invests Today Year Cash Flow Discount Factor 10 Present Value 0 1500000 1000 1500000 1 500000 0909 454545 2 Scenario 1 900000 ... View the full answer