Determine impact of seasonal adjustment factors on the forecasts. Is there evidence that using seasonal adjustment factors
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Determine impact of seasonal adjustment factors on the forecasts. Is there evidence that using seasonal adjustment factors will provide value to the forecasts? First three images are without adjustment and the second three are with the adjustment:
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В E H P АВ АС AD MODEL #3 MODEL #1 MODEL #2 2020 MODEL #5 2020 2020 Forecast 3- MODEL #4 2020 Forecast Forecast 3- Month 2020 Forecast 2019 - 2020 3% Growth month Weighted Moving Forecast Exp. Season Actual Adjusment Smoothing Smoothing with Trend 2017 Total 2018 Total 2019 Total 2020 Total Over 2019 Moving Exp. 6 Data Section 7 January 8 February 9 March Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) Growth Only Average Average Factors 52598 57487 57342 58012 1.17% 59062 71352 71907 64148 65129 0.89 58908 59513 58236 59456 2.09% 59983 67689 65312 66534 68077 0.91 58800 62834 56843 57007 0.29% 58548 63473 61722 68459 70156 0.89 10 April 11 May 69056 75115 71343 59582 -16.49% 73483 58158 57943 65325 65089 1.11 64884 67409 65875 58209 -11.64% 67851 58682 58784 63564 62719 1.03 12 June 55465 55863 59351 52850 -10.95% 61132 58266 58381 61597 60303 0.93 13 July -11.71% 59143 61869 60050 53021 61852 56880 55804 60993 59974 0.94 14 August 15 September 16 October 61171 62850 63259 55895 -11.64% 65157 54693 54007 60158 59212 0.99 64173 63224 62518 56022 -10.39% 64394 53922 54424 57965 56521 0.98 68265 67351 69002 71072 54979 55384 56482 55022 1.08 17 November 72885 75195 72102 74265 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.10 18 December 69865 72488 72952 75141 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.14 19 Forecast Accuracy MODEL #4 20 MODEL #1 MODEL #2 MODEL #3 MODEL #5 21 Apply Seasonality Adjustment 22 Forecast Growth Rate (Target): NO MAD 6823 4724 4276 6521 6347 2020 YTD 3.00% MSE 65823776 37764255 33007459 49174019 51519954 Accuracy 23 Forecast Weights: 20% 30% 50% MAPE 12.13% 8.31% 7.53% 11.57% 11.21% 24 YTD Aggregate Growth Rate: -8.07% 25 1st Quarter MAD 1039 9346 8155 8222 9629 26 2020 MSE 1251637 95849015 83198329 72965628 99289844 27 Accuracy МАРЕ 1.80% 16.06% 14.02% 14.19% 16.61% 28 29 2nd Quarter MAD 10608 2438 2582 6615 5823 30 2020 MSE 118265830 10528187 11202969 46056028 35404786 31 Аccuracy МАРЕ 18.52% 4.48% 4.73% 11.80% 10.36% В E H P АВ АС AD MODEL #3 MODEL #1 MODEL #2 2020 MODEL #5 2020 2020 Forecast 3- MODEL #4 2020 Forecast Forecast 3- Month 2020 Forecast 2019 - 2020 3% Growth month Weighted Moving Forecast Exp. Season Actual Adjusment Smoothing Smoothing with Trend 2017 Total 2018 Total 2019 Total 2020 Total Over 2019 Moving Exp. 6 Data Section 7 January 8 February 9 March Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) Growth Only Average Average Factors 52598 57487 57342 58012 1.17% 59062 71352 71907 64148 65129 0.89 58908 59513 58236 59456 2.09% 59983 67689 65312 66534 68077 0.91 58800 62834 56843 57007 0.29% 58548 63473 61722 68459 70156 0.89 10 April 11 May 69056 75115 71343 59582 -16.49% 73483 58158 57943 65325 65089 1.11 64884 67409 65875 58209 -11.64% 67851 58682 58784 63564 62719 1.03 12 June 55465 55863 59351 52850 -10.95% 61132 58266 58381 61597 60303 0.93 13 July -11.71% 59143 61869 60050 53021 61852 56880 55804 60993 59974 0.94 14 August 15 September 16 October 61171 62850 63259 55895 -11.64% 65157 54693 54007 60158 59212 0.99 64173 63224 62518 56022 -10.39% 64394 53922 54424 57965 56521 0.98 68265 67351 69002 71072 54979 55384 56482 55022 1.08 17 November 72885 75195 72102 74265 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.10 18 December 69865 72488 72952 75141 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.14 19 Forecast Accuracy MODEL #4 20 MODEL #1 MODEL #2 MODEL #3 MODEL #5 21 Apply Seasonality Adjustment 22 Forecast Growth Rate (Target): NO MAD 6823 4724 4276 6521 6347 2020 YTD 3.00% MSE 65823776 37764255 33007459 49174019 51519954 Accuracy 23 Forecast Weights: 20% 30% 50% MAPE 12.13% 8.31% 7.53% 11.57% 11.21% 24 YTD Aggregate Growth Rate: -8.07% 25 1st Quarter MAD 1039 9346 8155 8222 9629 26 2020 MSE 1251637 95849015 83198329 72965628 99289844 27 Accuracy МАРЕ 1.80% 16.06% 14.02% 14.19% 16.61% 28 29 2nd Quarter MAD 10608 2438 2582 6615 5823 30 2020 MSE 118265830 10528187 11202969 46056028 35404786 31 Аccuracy МАРЕ 18.52% 4.48% 4.73% 11.80% 10.36%
Expert Answer:
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The seasonal factor for that time period is determined by the ratio between the actual number and th... View the full answer
Related Book For
Stats Data and Models
ISBN: 978-0321986498
4th edition
Authors: Richard D. De Veaux, Paul D. Velleman, David E. Bock
Posted Date:
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