he "early call"declaring a winner before all the polls have closedis a controversial staple of the media's election night coverage. Convinced that "projections of the winner in key states may depress voter turnout on the West Coast if it appears that the election is or will be decided before polls close in the West," many reformers advocate measures that would require all polls to close at the same time. These proposed reforms are based on the idea that the media's early declarations depress turnout in areas where the polls are still open. Suppose you want to investigate whether the advocates for reform are correct in their assertion. Come up with (x) an independent variable and (y) a dependent variable that one could use in order to discover whether there is evidence in favor (or against) their claim. (Note: There are definitely multiple reasonable answers here, so don't waste a lot of time trying to come up with a "perfect" one.)

1. At what unit of analysis would you be collecting data, given your variables?
2. Phrase the reformers' claim as a precise, testable hypothesis, linking your independent and dependent variables.
3. How might one go about actually collecting the necessary measurements to see whether these two variables are related?
4. It is not typically possible to perfectly measure phenomena of interest. What sort(s) of measurement error would you anticipate? Be specific in assessing how your proposed measurement plan might suffer from validity and/or reliability issues or why you don't think these will be a serious problem.
5. Suppose, after collecting the data, you find a strong association (relationship) between your independent variable (x) and dependent variable (y). What is the plausible mechanism by which the reformers seem to think X is causing Y?