In a construction windows and doors are two consecutive jobs each of which can be done...

 

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In a construction "windows" and "doors" are two consecutive jobs each of which can be done at 3 different speeds. According to the speed chosen, the probabilities of both the cost and the time of completion is change. If the two jobs are not completed in 10 months, the contractor has to pay a fine of 500 Million monthly. The contractor has prepared the following table depending on his earlier experience. JOB SPEED COST (MILLION WINDOWS DOOR THE THE THE MONTHLY PROBABILITY PROBABILITY PROBABILITY OF COMPLETION COMPLETION IN 5 MONHS IN 6 MONHS 0,5 0,3 0,6 0,1 0,4 0 0,4 0,4 0,3 A 400 B 500 C 600 UD COMPLETION IN 4 MONHS 0,2 0,3 0,6 200 0,1 E 300 0,3 F 400 0,6 0,5 0,3 0,1 a) Calculate the expected (mean) value of the cost for different speeds. b) Calculate the expected value of total cost. (First, calculate the probability of completion in 11 months, second, the probability of completion in 12 months, third, the expected value of construction cost to be paid, fourth, the expected value of fine to be paid, and finally the expected value of total cost.) In a construction "windows" and "doors" are two consecutive jobs each of which can be done at 3 different speeds. According to the speed chosen, the probabilities of both the cost and the time of completion is change. If the two jobs are not completed in 10 months, the contractor has to pay a fine of 500 Million monthly. The contractor has prepared the following table depending on his earlier experience. JOB SPEED COST (MILLION WINDOWS DOOR THE THE THE MONTHLY PROBABILITY PROBABILITY PROBABILITY OF COMPLETION COMPLETION IN 5 MONHS IN 6 MONHS 0,5 0,3 0,6 0,1 0,4 0 0,4 0,4 0,3 A 400 B 500 C 600 UD COMPLETION IN 4 MONHS 0,2 0,3 0,6 200 0,1 E 300 0,3 F 400 0,6 0,5 0,3 0,1 a) Calculate the expected (mean) value of the cost for different speeds. b) Calculate the expected value of total cost. (First, calculate the probability of completion in 11 months, second, the probability of completion in 12 months, third, the expected value of construction cost to be paid, fourth, the expected value of fine to be paid, and finally the expected value of total cost.)