KC Mechanic Shop KC Mechanic Shop was established by Mr. John, a seasoned mechanic who has over 20 years of experience in the automotive repair industry. It is located in a suburban area with high traffic The shop has 10 skilled technicians who handle the majority of repair work, with two office managers and an operations manager who are responsible for strategic planning and overseeing the operations and customer services. Establishing good mission and vision for the shop is a very important responsibility of management since these have implications for the shop’s survival. Services Offered KC mechanic shop specializes in the repair and maintenance of vehicles such as cars, trucks, and SUV’s. It operates in a customer- facing environment, where customers can drop off their vehicles for service, repairs, or maintenance. It has a wide-ranging clientele, including individual customers, corporate fleets and dealership. The mechanics employed by the shop are trained professionals who are responsible for diagnosing problems examining vehicles, performing repairs and maintaining vehicles to ensure they run smoothly. KC mechanic shop offers a wide range of services to its customers. These services include:

1. Oil changes 2. Tire rotations 3. Brake repair 4. Suspension repair

5. Transmission repair 6. Engine repair 7. Diagnostic testing The Operations Manager makes a number of OM decisions on a regular basis. Some decisions are done more regularly than others. These decisions are done in the following areas of operations:- 1. Product 2. Human Resources

3. Location

4. Scheduling

5. Quality

6. Forecasting

7. Inventory control

8. Maintenance

9. Process

10. Layout Sales Figure and Forecasting

The shop relies on accurate forecast to plan its operations and manage labor, inventory and other resources. Sales figures are a key element in forecasting and are used to make critical business decisions such as hiring new staff, investing in new equipment and technology, or expanding the range of services offered. There are several methods that can be used to forecast sales at the shop: 1. Historical data analysis: KC mechanic shop can analyze historical sales data identify patterns, trends, and seasonal fluctuations, this information can be used to make MGMT2026 Production and Operations Management semester l 2023-2024 forecasts for future sales. 2. Market research: KC mechanic shop can conduct market research to gather data on industry trends, new technologies, and consumer preferences. This information can be used to make informed sales forecasts and to tailor services to meet customer needs. 3. Industry benchmarking: KC mechanic shop can also benchmark their sales against industry standards and competitor performance. This can provide useful insights into areas where the shop can improve or innovate to drive sales growth. 4. Competitor Analysis – Once a year, the shop conducts competitor analysis to evaluate its performance against its competitor and generates insights that can help them improve sales. By using forecasting methods, the shop can make informed decisions about its operations, and ensure that it is providing the best possible services to its customers while remaining profitable.

Sales figures for the last ten months are as follows:-

Months Actual Sales

1 30,000

2 39,000

3 42,000

4 50,000

5 55,000

6 61,000

7 70,000

8 77,000

9 81,500

10 90,000

Spare Parts The garage stocks parts that are used in its operations on a regular basis. These parts include suspension parts, engine parts and body parts. Stocking parts can bring a number of benefits to the mechanic shop

6. a. Use a three-period and a four-period weighted moving average to forecast sales for the 12th month. (Use weights of 1,2,3 and 1,2,3 4).

b. From the data provided in the case, use MAD to determine which forecasting technique is more accurate.

c. If forecast for month 7 is $72,000, with an alpha of 0.4, use exponential smoothing to forecast sales for months 8 and 9