Part AForecasting The sales for Grandpa's Greasy Spoon are given in Forecasting of project 3. Analyze this
Question:
Part AForecasting The sales for Grandpa's Greasy Spoon are given in "Forecasting" of project 3. Analyze this data to answer the following questions. 1. Plot the data using a scatter plot. Then, pick any data point, right click and insert a trend line. Change the trend line to a polynomial trend line of the third order. Display the equation and R2 value on the chart. Do you see any sort of seasonal trend? If so, what is that trend? 2. Use the equation that Excel gave you above to predict what the sales will be in month 25. Computer the MSE to compare to other methods later. 3. Use Excel to computer a 3-Month Moving Average, and a 3-Month weighted moving average for the sales. For the 3-month WMA use the following weights... t-1=0.80 t-2=0.15 t-3=0.05 ...So that if you were predicting sales for April, you would weight March at 80%, February at 15%, and January at 5%. 4. Compute the MSE of each of the three methods you used in parts 1 & 2 above. Based on this, which is the most accurate and why? Use the most accurate method to predict the sales for January 2020. 5. Which of the three methods provided you with the most accurate forecast. Was the benefit of the extra accuracy worth the time it took for this method? Why or why not?
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis A Practical Introduction to Management Science
ISBN: 978-0324656633
5th edition
Authors: Cliff T. Ragsdale