Since the introduction of enhanced security measures by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in 2017,...

 

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Since the introduction of enhanced security measures by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in 2017, flights bound for the U.S. from Canada are subject to additional screening by airline security. The Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (CATSA) has adopted some of these measures, including enhanced screening of laptops, tablets, and other personal electronics. These new measures have reintroduced the problem of long waiting lines and waiting times at security gates at some airports. One of the key components of any effort by CATSA to operationally improve airport security procedures while reducing passenger waiting times and inconvenience is forecasting passenger arrivals at security checkpoints to determine how many security checkpoints and staff are needed. At the Gotham International Airport, CATSA operations analysts would like to forecast passenger arrivals for next July, the airport s busiest travel month of the year, for the purpose of determining how many security checkpoints they should staff during the month so that waiting lines and times will not be excessively long. Demand for airline travel has generally been increasing during the past three years. There are two main concourses at Gotham International, East and West, each serving different airlines. The following table shows passenger arrivals at the West concourse for 10 days (selected randomly) in two-hour segments from 4:00 A.M. to 10:00 P.M. for the month of July for the past three years. Develop a forecast for daily passenger arrivals at the West concourse at Gotham for each time period for July of year 4. Discuss the various forecast model variations that might be used to develop this forecast. Year 1 Day 4-6 A.M 1 2 3 4 сл 7 8 9 10 2400 2700 1900 6 2600 2300 2200 2400 1900 2000 2400 6-8 A.M 2600 2500 3300 3100 2500 8-10 A.M 3200 3100 2800 3200 2700 3100 3200 2800 3500 3400 3100 2500 3600 3300 3100 10- noon 1400 1600 1500 2200 1700 1500 1200 1500 1600 200 noon-2 P.M. 1700 1800 1500 1900 2200 1700 1500 2000 2100 2500 2-4 P.M. 1800 2000 4-6 P.M. 1600 1800 1800 1900 2400 2100 2000 2100 2000 1400 2300 1900 2500 1800 6-8 P.M. 2600 2400 800 1900 1500 1100 900 1100 1200 1000 900 1000 1400 1100 8-10 P.M. 200 300 200 400 600 300 400 200 200 400 Year 2 11 3100 3900 4100 12 2800 13 14 15 17 2700 18 2400 3300 3400 3800 4300 16 3500 4000 3800 3500 4100 20 3700 3700 4000 2900 4100 3900 3400 3800 19 3600 3600 3700 3900 4200 4000 4000 2200 1900 2100 2400 2600 2300 2400 2000 2300 2200 2600 2100 2400 3000 2600 2700 3000 2500 2600 2600 2300 2500 2500 2400 3200 2700 3200 2000 2400 2800 3100 3000 2900 2600 1200 2500 1100 1200 2600 1200 1000 900 3000 2200 1000 1100 1200 2700 2400 1200 300 300 400 700 300 200 500 300 200 200 Year 3 21 22 23 24 4400 27 4200 4500 4500 4400 4600 4600 25 4500 4300 4500 4500 30 4700 4500 26 4200 4300 4500 29 4900 4100 4300 4700 4500 4600 4400 4500 5100 28 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 2600 2500 2700 2500 2900 3000 3300 2800 3100 3000 3300 3400 3400 3200 3300 4000 4000 3500 3600 4000 3400 3000 1200 3600 3500 3500 3100 3700 3300 3300 2900 1200 2800 3900 1400 3400 3000 1500 3100 1300 3400 1500 4000 3300 1100 1200 1400 3700 3400 1200 400 300 300 300 400 600 300 400 500 500 Since the introduction of enhanced security measures by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in 2017, flights bound for the U.S. from Canada are subject to additional screening by airline security. The Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (CATSA) has adopted some of these measures, including enhanced screening of laptops, tablets, and other personal electronics. These new measures have reintroduced the problem of long waiting lines and waiting times at security gates at some airports. One of the key components of any effort by CATSA to operationally improve airport security procedures while reducing passenger waiting times and inconvenience is forecasting passenger arrivals at security checkpoints to determine how many security checkpoints and staff are needed. At the Gotham International Airport, CATSA operations analysts would like to forecast passenger arrivals for next July, the airport s busiest travel month of the year, for the purpose of determining how many security checkpoints they should staff during the month so that waiting lines and times will not be excessively long. Demand for airline travel has generally been increasing during the past three years. There are two main concourses at Gotham International, East and West, each serving different airlines. The following table shows passenger arrivals at the West concourse for 10 days (selected randomly) in two-hour segments from 4:00 A.M. to 10:00 P.M. for the month of July for the past three years. Develop a forecast for daily passenger arrivals at the West concourse at Gotham for each time period for July of year 4. Discuss the various forecast model variations that might be used to develop this forecast. Year 1 Day 4-6 A.M 1 2 3 4 сл 7 8 9 10 2400 2700 1900 6 2600 2300 2200 2400 1900 2000 2400 6-8 A.M 2600 2500 3300 3100 2500 8-10 A.M 3200 3100 2800 3200 2700 3100 3200 2800 3500 3400 3100 2500 3600 3300 3100 10- noon 1400 1600 1500 2200 1700 1500 1200 1500 1600 200 noon-2 P.M. 1700 1800 1500 1900 2200 1700 1500 2000 2100 2500 2-4 P.M. 1800 2000 4-6 P.M. 1600 1800 1800 1900 2400 2100 2000 2100 2000 1400 2300 1900 2500 1800 6-8 P.M. 2600 2400 800 1900 1500 1100 900 1100 1200 1000 900 1000 1400 1100 8-10 P.M. 200 300 200 400 600 300 400 200 200 400 Year 2 11 3100 3900 4100 12 2800 13 14 15 17 2700 18 2400 3300 3400 3800 4300 16 3500 4000 3800 3500 4100 20 3700 3700 4000 2900 4100 3900 3400 3800 19 3600 3600 3700 3900 4200 4000 4000 2200 1900 2100 2400 2600 2300 2400 2000 2300 2200 2600 2100 2400 3000 2600 2700 3000 2500 2600 2600 2300 2500 2500 2400 3200 2700 3200 2000 2400 2800 3100 3000 2900 2600 1200 2500 1100 1200 2600 1200 1000 900 3000 2200 1000 1100 1200 2700 2400 1200 300 300 400 700 300 200 500 300 200 200 Year 3 21 22 23 24 4400 27 4200 4500 4500 4400 4600 4600 25 4500 4300 4500 4500 30 4700 4500 26 4200 4300 4500 29 4900 4100 4300 4700 4500 4600 4400 4500 5100 28 4300 4200 4300 4200 4100 2600 2500 2700 2500 2900 3000 3300 2800 3100 3000 3300 3400 3400 3200 3300 4000 4000 3500 3600 4000 3400 3000 1200 3600 3500 3500 3100 3700 3300 3300 2900 1200 2800 3900 1400 3400 3000 1500 3100 1300 3400 1500 4000 3300 1100 1200 1400 3700 3400 1200 400 300 300 300 400 600 300 400 500 500