S&L Chian Bank's manager just found the data of customer deposits (in millions) and GSP (state gross
Question:
S&L Chian Bank's manager just found the data of customer deposits (in millions) and GSP (state gross product, in billions) from the prior 44 years (as shown in Table 3). The management believes that there is a considerable association between deposits of the year and the last year's GSP. Answer the following questions Q1 ~ Q3.
Table 3 | ||
Year | Deposits | GSP |
1 | 2.25 | 0.4 |
2 | 3.10 | 0.4 |
3 | 3.68 | 0.5 |
4 | 3.09 | 0.7 |
5 | 4.25 | 0.9 |
6 | 4.30 | 1.0 |
7 | 4.91 | 1.4 |
8 | 5.32 | 1.7 |
9 | 4.24 | 1.3 |
10 | 4.26 | 1.2 |
11 | 5.25 | 1.1 |
12 | 3.33 | 0.9 |
13 | 5.50 | 1.2 |
14 | 5.95 | 1.2 |
15 | 6.70 | 1.2 |
16 | 6.30 | 1.6 |
17 | 9.35 | 1.5 |
18 | 7.80 | 1.6 |
19 | 8.70 | 1.7 |
20 | 9.90 | 1.9 |
21 | 10.49 | 1.9 |
22 | 11.30 | 2.3 |
23 | 13.20 | 2.5 |
24 | 14.10 | 2.8 |
25 | 17.50 | 2.9 |
26 | 19.10 | 3.4 |
27 | 25.70 | 3.8 |
28 | 24.10 | 4.1 |
29 | 22.20 | 4.0 |
30 | 26.10 | 4.0 |
31 | 24.10 | 3.9 |
32 | 24.60 | 3.8 |
33 | 30.30 | 3.8 |
34 | 36.00 | 3.7 |
35 | 31.10 | 4.1 |
36 | 31.70 | 4.1 |
37 | 38.50 | 4.0 |
38 | 43.90 | 4.5 |
39 | 46.10 | 4.6 |
40 | 55.80 | 4.5 |
41 | 60.25 | 4.6 |
42 | 62.90 | 4.6 |
43 | 63.10 | 4.7 |
44 | 70.00 | 5.5 |
45 |
Q1: According to the management, what is the coefficient of correlation for deposits and GSP?
Q2: Using the associate method (i.e., linear regression), what is the forecasted deposits (in million) this year (year 45)?
Q3: As we can see from the data, deposits has grown faster just in recent few years. The management hopes that for this year (year 45), they can have at least the same amount of deposits as last year. Using the approach of the associate method, estimate the probability that their goal can be achieved. Show your analysis below.
(Provide excel formula and solution, answers)