Supply: You bake cheesecakes early in the morning. Baking cost of a cheesecake is $ 1 0
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Question:
Supply: You bake cheesecakes early in the morning. Baking cost of a cheesecake
is $
Demand: You sell fresh cheesecakes later in the day. Selling price of a
cheesecake is $
Shortage of Supply: You lose a potential profit of $ per cheesecake.
Excess Supply: You lose the baking cost of $ per cheesecake.
Objective: Try to develop a good method to forecast the daily demand for cheesecakes.
Apply double exponential smoothing forecasting method considering seasonality
deseasoningreseasoningalpha beta
Apply Winters forecasting method alpha beta gamma
Describe the implementation details of both methods, evaluate the methods using the remaining
demand data for days. Submit your HW through LMS
Note:
In applying DES, you may obtain initial slope and intercept as you get in Winters method. Use the
first two weeks data for this purpose. Consider deseasoning and reseasoning as we have applied with MA in lecture. In applying Winters use its usual procedure as explained in the lecture.
Evaluate your estimation using MAD and MSE for both methods. in excel
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