The company wants to compare different forecasting models on a small demand data set. Historical demand...

 

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The company wants to compare different forecasting models on a small demand data set. Historical demand for the product is given by: Demand January 12 February 11 March 15 12 16 15 16 14 September 13 October 12 November 15 December 14 Month April May June July August (1) Calculate the forecast demand for each month from April to December (including April) using the following methods (You can provide the answers in a table). a. A simple three-month moving average. b. A three-month weighted moving average with weights 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 for t-3, 1-2, and t-1 respectively c. A three-month weighted moving average with weights 0.1, 0.1, and 0.8 for t-3, 1-2, and t-1 respectively d. A single exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. Assuming the forecast demand for March is 14 e. Using single exponential smoothing with a = 0.5. Assuming the forecast demand for March is 14 (2) Plot the forecast demand series from the above methods. Which method leads to the smoothest forecast demand among all? Can you explain (in one or two sentences) why this is the case? The company wants to compare different forecasting models on a small demand data set. Historical demand for the product is given by: Demand January 12 February 11 March 15 12 16 15 16 14 September 13 October 12 November 15 December 14 Month April May June July August (1) Calculate the forecast demand for each month from April to December (including April) using the following methods (You can provide the answers in a table). a. A simple three-month moving average. b. A three-month weighted moving average with weights 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 for t-3, 1-2, and t-1 respectively c. A three-month weighted moving average with weights 0.1, 0.1, and 0.8 for t-3, 1-2, and t-1 respectively d. A single exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. Assuming the forecast demand for March is 14 e. Using single exponential smoothing with a = 0.5. Assuming the forecast demand for March is 14 (2) Plot the forecast demand series from the above methods. Which method leads to the smoothest forecast demand among all? Can you explain (in one or two sentences) why this is the case?

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

Conclusion Exponential Smoothing with Alpha 02 appears to be more accurate for this particular data ... View the full answer