The monthly sales for CVS Company, is displayed for the past 12 months:

80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83

a.Estimate the Trend Line and calculate the accuracy of the model by using MAPE.

(No need to show your calculations, round up your numbers to 2 decimal points)

Write down the equation of the Trend Line? Then, Interpret the slope of the trend line and calculate the MAPE based on the simple Trend Line method

Equation of the Trend Line

y= 0.1503x + 82.106

Interpret the slope of the Trend Line

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Interepret the meaning of the MAPE that you calculated for this data set

b.Develop a 4-month weighted moving average for this time series by assigning 60% weight for the most recent value and an equal weight for other time periods. Calculate the MAPE and the MSE

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

MSE

c.Now, using the MAPE, compare and decide which method provided the most accurate forecast for this time series? Why?

Use the most accurate method and forecast sales for next month.

Forecast for next month

d.Use =0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

e.Using Excel Solver for the exponential smoothing model to fit the data, calculate the OPTIMUM value for , based on that , calculate the MSE.

OPTIMUM value for

Mean Squared Error (MSE)