Sales for the past 12 months at Dalworth Company are given here.

a. Use a three-month moving average to forecast the sales for the months April through December.
b. Use exponential smoothing with a = 0.6 to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was $22 million. Start error measurement in April.
c. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
d. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
e. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
 

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MONTH SALES (S MILLIONS) MONTH SALES ($ MILLIONS) January 20 July 53 February 24 August 62 March 27 September 54 April 31 October 36 May 37 November 32 June 47 December 29 MONTH SALES (S MILLIONS) MONTH SALES ($ MILLIONS) January 20 July 53 February 24 August 62 March 27 September 54 April 31 October 36 May 37 November 32 June 47 December 29