Using a four-month moving average on the data given in the spreadsheet, determine one-step-ahead and two-step-ahead forecasts
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Question:
Using a four-month moving average on the data given in the spreadsheet, determine one-step-ahead and two-step-ahead forecasts for July through December 2016. Compare their performance. (Hint: In the one-step-ahead forecast, the forecast for July is based on the observed demands in March through June. The two-step-ahead forecast for July is based on the observed demands in February through May.)
Month | Demand |
January | 89 |
February | 57 |
March | 144 |
April | 221 |
May | 177 |
June | 280 |
July | 223 |
August | 286 |
September | 212 |
October | 275 |
November | 188 |
December | 312 |
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