Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Method 1: Number of American with BMI
Question:
| Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Method 1: | |||||
Number of American with BMI between 25 and 30 | 78200000 | 78200000 | 78200000 | 78200000 | 78200000 |
x 35% actively trying to lose weight | 27370000 | 27370000 | 27370000 | 27370000 | 27370000 |
x15% who are comfortable using diet pills | 4105500 | 4105500 | 4105500 | 4105500 | 4105500 |
10% who might purchase Metabocil in Year 1 with 5% increase every year | 410550 | 615825 | 821100 | 1026375 | 1231650 |
Add: 60% who will buy second package | 246330 | 369495 | 492660 | 615825 | 738990 |
Add: 20% who will buy a third package | 49266 | 73899 | 98532 | 123165 | 147798 |
Total Sales | 706146 | 1059219 | 1412292 | 41765365 | 2118438 |
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Method 2: | |||||
Number of American with BMI between 25 and 30 | 78200000 | 78200000 | 78200000 | 78200000 | 78200000 |
x 12% immediately ready to go to health care provider | 9384000 | 9384000 | 9384000 | 9384000 | 9384000 |
10% who might purchase Metabical in Year 1 with 5% increase every year | 938400 | 1407600 | 1876800 | 2346000 | 2815200 |
Add: 60% who will buy second package | 563040 | 844560 | 1126080 | 1407600 | 1689120 |
Add: 20% who will buy a third package | 112608 | 168912 | 225216 | 281520 | 337824 |
Total Sales | 1614048 | 2421072 | 3228096 | 4035120 | 4842144 |
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Method 3: | |||||
Ideal Target Consumers (Educated Females 35-65 of age with BMIs between 25 and 30 | 4300000 | 4300000 | 4300000 | 4300000 | 4300000 |
30% of Ideal target market in first year with 5% increase each year | 1290000 | 1505000 | 1720000 | 1935000 | 2150000 |
Add: 60% who will buy second package | 774000 | 903000 | 1032000 | 1161000 | 1290000 |
Add: 20% who will buy a third package | 154800 | 180600 | 206400 | 232200 | 258000 |
Total Sales | 2218800 | 2588600 | 2958400 | 3328200 | 3698000 |
What are the pros and cons of the forecasting methods presented by Printup?
If you had to estimate demand for this product, how would you go about it? What would your demand (unit) forecast look like for the first five years?
Considering the whole population of the United States, it targets a population that is ready to begin using the product upon approval and use which makes data more precise.
Visualizing Environmental Science
ISBN: 978-1119147527
4th edition
Authors: Linda R. Berg, David M. Hassenzahl, Mary Catherine Hager