What is the forecast for Periods 13-16 for the Exponential Smoothing Model? 1 2 3 3456789RNGRAN...

 

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What is the forecast for Periods 13-16 for the Exponential Smoothing Model? 1 2 3 3456789RNGRAN 10 11 12 13 14 15 20 21 *FOUXUN*******SEKEKN MOVING AVERAGE Period Demand Level Forecast 25 7 36 123456NBSPERRHEE 2288858858 8 10 22 Alpha= 23 Period 11 2123456NOSPERHEE 0 8 B 9 34 10 78 11 73 89 99 89 81 106 83 111 105 97 96 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 0.3 22888588EST 78 73 89 89 81 Demand Level Forecast 92.3 88.0 83.5 85.1 89.3 106 83 111 C SHOP 105 96 92.3 84.8 D 87.5 89.5 93.8 92.3 84.8 87.5 89.5 89.8 93.8 95.3 89.8 1013 95.3 99.0 1013 92.3 88.0 83.5 85.1 89.2 89.3 86.7 89.2 92.5 86.7 89.7 92.5 96.1 89.7 98.7 96.1 98.2 98.7 97.6 98.2 E F G E 3 4 -19 7 -17 -15 -2 5 E HESHOPPNINN 14 15 -6 -14 -19 10 H -5 -22 -38 -39 134.6 -34 1212 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error -21 -9 A, P MARTTR25 3 4 19 7 17 15 A 14 15 HSEHUBONN 14 19 10 21 2 3 7 -12 J bias MSE MAD bias 14 29 24 10 ERRORS K 10.6 12.3 122.3 8.5 102.3 1413 156.5 10.8 3.3 338805PSB MSSOS853 2 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 3.5 8.0 9.9 9.5 8.9 ERRORS MSE MAD 203.1 14.3 213.7 14.6 116 162.5 12.2 152.6 130.0 9.8 119.6 9.5 155.4 10.9 147.3 10.7 10 18 -1 9 -13 1816 119 -22 1714 116 -20 156.1 10.7 -18 143.5 10.0 7653 10 Percent Error MAPE TS 3.7 4.6 17.5 7.8 15.5 14.5 18 5.5 Percent Error 18.3 20.5 6.2 14.0 0.3 10.1 18.2 11.5 19.2 8.5 18 2.3 M Figure 2. Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Models with Error Analysis w w w w w www. TTTTTTTT 3.7 100 3.7 2.00 3.7 -1.35 3.7 -0.63 3.7 -2.26 3.7 -3.49 3.7 -4.15 3.7 -3.80 MAPE TS 34 18.3 N 1.00 19.4 2.00 2.05 0.81 104 193 -0.08 15.0 14.7 119 116 12.5 12.4 13.1 12.7 117 10.9 0.80 -107 -186 -186 -177 What is the forecast for Periods 13-16 for the Exponential Smoothing Model? 1 2 3 3456789RNGRAN 10 11 12 13 14 15 20 21 *FOUXUN*******SEKEKN MOVING AVERAGE Period Demand Level Forecast 25 7 36 123456NBSPERRHEE 2288858858 8 10 22 Alpha= 23 Period 11 2123456NOSPERHEE 0 8 B 9 34 10 78 11 73 89 99 89 81 106 83 111 105 97 96 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 0.3 22888588EST 78 73 89 89 81 Demand Level Forecast 92.3 88.0 83.5 85.1 89.3 106 83 111 C SHOP 105 96 92.3 84.8 D 87.5 89.5 93.8 92.3 84.8 87.5 89.5 89.8 93.8 95.3 89.8 1013 95.3 99.0 1013 92.3 88.0 83.5 85.1 89.2 89.3 86.7 89.2 92.5 86.7 89.7 92.5 96.1 89.7 98.7 96.1 98.2 98.7 97.6 98.2 E F G E 3 4 -19 7 -17 -15 -2 5 E HESHOPPNINN 14 15 -6 -14 -19 10 H -5 -22 -38 -39 134.6 -34 1212 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error -21 -9 A, P MARTTR25 3 4 19 7 17 15 A 14 15 HSEHUBONN 14 19 10 21 2 3 7 -12 J bias MSE MAD bias 14 29 24 10 ERRORS K 10.6 12.3 122.3 8.5 102.3 1413 156.5 10.8 3.3 338805PSB MSSOS853 2 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 3.5 8.0 9.9 9.5 8.9 ERRORS MSE MAD 203.1 14.3 213.7 14.6 116 162.5 12.2 152.6 130.0 9.8 119.6 9.5 155.4 10.9 147.3 10.7 10 18 -1 9 -13 1816 119 -22 1714 116 -20 156.1 10.7 -18 143.5 10.0 7653 10 Percent Error MAPE TS 3.7 4.6 17.5 7.8 15.5 14.5 18 5.5 Percent Error 18.3 20.5 6.2 14.0 0.3 10.1 18.2 11.5 19.2 8.5 18 2.3 M Figure 2. Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Models with Error Analysis w w w w w www. TTTTTTTT 3.7 100 3.7 2.00 3.7 -1.35 3.7 -0.63 3.7 -2.26 3.7 -3.49 3.7 -4.15 3.7 -3.80 MAPE TS 34 18.3 N 1.00 19.4 2.00 2.05 0.81 104 193 -0.08 15.0 14.7 119 116 12.5 12.4 13.1 12.7 117 10.9 0.80 -107 -186 -186 -177