Wilde's Bramble is an organic food company started by a couple who grew up in rural Vermont,

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Question:

Wilde's Bramble is an organic food company started by a couple who grew up in rural Vermont, Alder and Calla Wilde. Living on a small farm created with tracts of land from both sets of parents, the Wildes decided to grow and sell organic products. They began by bringing their products to local farmers' markets and when word got around of the high-quality and delicious offerings, local shops and restaurants began to buy and resell their products too.

The increase in the number of customers led to more pressure to produce, so the Wildes used some money from savings to lease more farmland and ramp up production. They also needed additional equipment, more power, and a new barn.

To keep up with costs, Alder and Calla began to rely on a credit card. As the credit card payments increased and the finance charges piled up, they took out a mortgage on the farm, and Calla found a job away from the farm to help with cash flow. The outlook began to dim as the ever-increasing debt—which helped the cash flow problem in the moment but added to the overall crunch—threatened to overwhelm them.

Alt text:

Graph of sales, profit, and debt; sales and profit lines rise, left to right, and debt line rises and then falls.

Long description:

Sales line begins at y-axis slightly above x-axis and rises smoothly in a concave curve to a high point at far right near the top of the graph. Profit line begins slightly below sales line at y-axis and parallels the sales line to high point at far right about half the graph's height. Debt line begins at the y-axis very near the x-axis, crosses the sales and profit lines to a high point at the lower third of the height of the graph, midway along the x-axis, then falls at far right to near x-axis.

Case Study ONE 1.

help me to write like this Systems Thinking

Sample Performance Tasks

The owners of a new tech startup are determined to grow their business as quickly as possible. Consequently, they make large capital investments to build manufacturing capacity and stay ahead of anticipated demand for their revolutionary new medical device. At the end of the business's first month, the owners discover that they had not budgeted enough money to pay all their bills. To make up for this deficit, the owners take out a bank loan. At the end of the following month, the business still does not have enough money on hand to pay all its bills. However, in addition to their other debts, the owners also must pay the principal and interest from the money they borrowed. To keep up, they take out an even bigger loan.

Task 1 Instructions:

Using the Iceberg Tool, write a summary of the analysis identifying key events, patterns, and the underlying structure that causes the identified events and patterns to occur.

ChoosetheBehaviorOverTimeGraphthatbestrepresentsthepatternsyou identified using the attached "Case Study 1 Graphs" or "Case Study 2 Graphs" for the case study you chose.

a. Discuss why the chosen Behavior Over Time graph best represents the patterns present in the chosen case study.

3. Write an analysis that discusses what the Iceberg Tool and Behavior Over Time graph reveal about the problem in the case study as well as the interconnections between the key events, patterns, and underlying structure of the system.

Task 1 Sample Response:

In the sample case study, a key event is when the tech startup borrows money at the end of the month to make up for a budget deficit and pay its bills. Over time, a pattern emerges in which the business must borrow more at the end of each month to pay its bills, including bills related to borrowing to pay for other bills. The structural cause of this pattern is the business owner's mental model of success. Because the owners believe that success is measured by rapid growth, they put too much money into building manufacturing capacity for their new medical device beyond what is required to keep up with current demand. As a result, they need to take out a bank loan to pay the bills, which only increases their budget deficit and leads to borrowing more each month.

The Behavior Over Time Graph below shows that, as budget pressure increases for the tech startup, the owners borrow more money to make up for the deficit. While this reduces budget pressure in the short term, each month the deficit grows larger. In the long term, unless something interrupts this pattern, the company will not be able to keep up with its mounting budget deficit.

(Image from "Systems Archetypes Basics" by Daniel Kim)

When combined, the Iceberg Tool and Behavior Over Time Graph are powerful tools that allow us to think more holistically about the systemic budget problem this new tech startup faces. The Iceberg Tool helps us see beneath individual instances of borrowing to the larger pattern of borrowing behavior and its structural cause. In addition, using a Behavior Over Time Graph to chart the trajectory of this pattern enables us to predict the direction in which the company is headed.

Task 2 Instructions:

Analyze a case study using one of the systems archetypes tools.

Submit a completed systems archetype tool.

Summarize the problems in the case study as understood through its

relationships, properties, and subsystems as a result of the changes that occur.

Task 2 Sample Response:

(Image from "Systems Archetypes Basics" by Daniel Kim)

The "Fixes that Fail" archetype fits situations in which a problem is addressed with a quick fix causing temporary relief but the fix itself has unintended consequences that, over time, make the problem worse. In the sample case study, the owners of the tech startup face the problem of needing cash at the end of the month to pay off debt accumulated from capital expenses. The quick fix they apply is borrowing money to pay off some of their bills. This eases their need for cash and balances their finances in the short term. In the long run, however, it makes the problem worse because a side effect of borrowing money is that it leads to more debt (principle plus interest) which the business owners do not have cash to cover.

The overall dynamic represented by the "Fixes that Fail" archetype is a reinforcing loop in which the fix makes the problem worse, leading to more of the problem, requiring more of the fix, and so on. By using this system archetype as a lens to analyze the problem in the sample case study, we can see that, unless something is done to interrupt this unsustainable vicious circle of higher debt and more borrowing, the tech startup will eventually go bankrupt.

Task 3 Instructions:

1. Evaluate the case study using the "Four Steps Tool."
2. Submit the completed "Four Steps Tool," which includes the following:

your proposed best solution and the solution's strengths and challenges

the solution's superiority over other, rejected alternatives

the solution's anticipated impact on the overall system

Task 3 Sample Response (using Four Steps Tool): STEP 1: Complete an Iceberg Tool for this case study.

(From "Six Steps to Thinking Systemically" by Goodman and Karash)

What are the key events in this case study?

Key events in the sample case study are when the tech startup experiences a budget deficit at the end of the month and borrows money to pay its bills.

What patterns do you notice in the key events of this case study?

A pattern emerges in which the company must borrow increasingly more each month to pay its growing debt, including bills related to previous borrowing.

What structure explains the pattern of events in this case study?

A structural cause of this pattern is the business owner's mental model of success. Because they believe success is measured by rapid growth, the owners put too much money into building production capacity beyond what is required to keep up with current demand for their new medical device. As a result, they need to keep borrowing to pay off debt that only keeps growing.

STEP 2: Draw "Behavior Over Time" Diagram.

(From "Systems Archetypes Basics" by Kim)

STEP 3: Select the systems archetype that best fits the case study.

Which archetype did you select?

Fixes that Fail

Why does this archetype best fit the given case study? Explain how its causal loop diagram and text description match up with the facts of the case study.

The "Fixes that Fail" archetype fits situations in which a problem is addressed with a quick fix that has unintended consequences that, over time, make the problem worse. In the sample case study, the owners of the tech startup need cash at the end of the month to pay off debt accumulated from capital expenses. The fix is borrowing money to pay their bills. This eases the need for cash in the short term. In the long run, however, it makes the problem worse because a side effect of borrowing is more debt that eventually will need to be paid off.

What is the main problem that needs to be addressed in this case study?

Unless something is done to interrupt the unsustainable vicious circle of higher debt and more borrowing, the tech startup will eventually go bankrupt.

STEP 4: Generate a solution to the problem.

What solution do you propose for the problem in this case study?

To break the cycle of borrowing and increasing debt, the tech startup can shift its mental model of success from one emphasizing rapid growth to one emphasizing slower but more sustainable progress. This will allow for solutions that otherwise would not have been considered. For example, the tech startup could sell off some of its capital investments to raise money and pay off its debt.

What are the strengths of this solution?

By paying off its debt, the tech startup can reduce its expenses and lay the foundations for long-term financial health. Instead of making interest and principal payments along with spending money on physical assets, including production equipment that the company is not yet fully utilizing, the business will eventually be able to focus its resources on what is needed to meet existing demand for its medical device. This should help ensure that the business does not overspend and will allow the startup to turn a profit more quickly.

What are the challenges of this solution?

Mental models can be difficult to overturn. Also, selling off assets might send a signal to potential customers that the tech startup is failing, which could reduce sales. Finally, by selling production equipment, the business risks missing an opportunity for rapid growth if its new medical device is suddenly in high demand.

What other alternatives did you consider and why is your selected solution superior to each of them?

An alternative solution is to raise additional cash by attracting new investors, but this could end up being another quick fix that ultimately fails. If the company does not grow quickly enough, the original owners and the new investors eventually could end up back in the same situation.

What do you project the impact of your proposed solution will be on the overall system described in this case study?

If the tech startup has a good medical device that meets a need in the market, then there is a good chance that eventually demand will pick up enough to make the business profitable. The key is to keep from going bankrupt before this happens, which is the path the startup had been on prior to implementing the proposed solution. By selling currently unused assets, the company can break the vicious circle of borrowing and debt and get on track toward slower but more reliable growth.