Ephemeral Apparel is experimenting with two forecasting methods for its new jeans. Table 2.13 gives the actual sales and the forecasts obtained by the two methods during the past 6 months.

a. Calculate MAD, MSE, and Bias for the two methods.

b. Calculate and plot the tracking signals for the two methods.

c. Are the methods underforecasting or overforecasting? Which method would you recommend for forecasting future sales and why?

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TABLE 2.13 Sales and Forecast Data for Exercise 2.14 Month Actual Sales 1 2 3 4 456 558 490 576 632 515 610 Forecast-1 532 541 520 550 575 590 Forecast-2 521 538 546 542 555 575