Fifty percent of the economists in the country are conservatives. The other 50%are liberals. Thirty percent of

Question:

Fifty percent of the economists in the country are conservatives. The other 50%are liberals. Thirty percent of the conservative economists and 20%of the liberal economists believe that we will have a recession. We have found an economist who thinks we will see a recession in the next year.

What is the probability that he or she is a conservative economist?

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