Use the following employment data (in thousands) for the United States and for New Jersey to answer question.

Compare the different forecasts generated for 1990 by the methods you used in questions 59–62. Which method do you think is best? Why?

Question 59

Compute the 4-year moving average for employment in the United States. Use this information to forecast employment in the United States in 1990.

Question 60
Use a time trend regression to forecast employment in the United States in 1990, 1991, and 1992.

Question 61
Use a first-order autoregressive model to forecast employment in the United States in 1990, 1991, and 1992.

Question 62
Do you think the first-order AR(1) is a good model to use to explain the data?

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Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Employment United States 78,678 79,367 82,153 85,064 86,794 85,846 88,752 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 New Jersey 2,859 2,840 2,935 3,011 3,023 2,929 2,973 3,065 3,209 3,323 3,334 3,330 3,306 3,385 3,589 3,621 3,712 3,806 3,824 3,826