Suppose a defense attorney is trying to convince the jury that his client’s wallet, found at the scene of the crime, was actually planted there by his client’s gardener. Here are two possible ways he might present this to the jury:
Statement A: The gardener dropped the wallet when no one was looking.
Statement B: The gardener hid the wallet in his sock and when no one was looking he quickly reached down and lowered his sock, allowing the wallet to drop to the ground.
a. Explain why the second statement cannot have a higher probability of being true than the first statement.
b. Based on the material in this chapter, to which statement are members of the jury likely to assign higher personal probabilities? Explain.