# Question: Suppose that a poll is being conducted in the village

Suppose that a poll is being conducted in the village of Lemont. The pollster identiﬁes her target population as all residents of Lemont 18 years old or older. This population has 6494 people.

(a) Compute the probability that the ﬁrst resident selected to participate in the poll is Roger Cummings and the second is Rick Whittingham.

(b) The probability that any particular resident of Lemont is the ﬁrst person picked is 1/6494. Compute the probability that Roger is selected ﬁrst and Rick is selected second,

assuming independence. Compare your results to part (a).

Conclude that, when small samples are taken from large populations without replacement, the assumption of independence does not signiﬁcantly affect the probability.

(a) Compute the probability that the ﬁrst resident selected to participate in the poll is Roger Cummings and the second is Rick Whittingham.

(b) The probability that any particular resident of Lemont is the ﬁrst person picked is 1/6494. Compute the probability that Roger is selected ﬁrst and Rick is selected second,

assuming independence. Compare your results to part (a).

Conclude that, when small samples are taken from large populations without replacement, the assumption of independence does not signiﬁcantly affect the probability.

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