Question: Suppose that whether it rains tomorrow depends on past weather
Suppose that whether it rains tomorrow depends on past weather conditions only through the last 2 days. Specifically, suppose that if it has rained yesterday and today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability .8; if it rained yesterday but not today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability .3; if it rained today but not yesterday, then it will rain tomorrow with probability .4; and if it has not rained either yesterday or today, then it will rain tomorrow with probability .2. What proportion of days does it rain?
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