Suppose the firm has a single outstanding debt issue with a promised maturity payment of $120 in 5 years. Assume that bankruptcy is triggered by assets (which are observable) falling below $40 in value at any time over the life of the bond—in which case the bondholder receives $40 at that time—or by assets being worth less than $120 at maturity, in which case the bondholder receives the asset value. What is the probability of bankruptcy over the life of the bond? What is the credit spread?
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