Suppose you are given a bag containing n unbiased coins. You are told that n — 1 of these coins are normal, with heads on one side arid tails on the other, whereas one coin is a fake, with heads on both sides.
a. Suppose you reach into the bag, pick out a coin uniformly at random, flip it, and get a head. What is the (conditional) probability that the coin you chose is the fake coin?
b. Suppose you continue flipping the coin for a total of k times after picking it and see k heads. Now what is the conditional probability that you picked the fake coin?
c. Suppose you wanted to decide whether the chosen coin was fake by flipping it k times. The decision procedure returns FAKE if all k flips come up heads, otherwise it returns NORMAL. What is the (unconditional) probability that this procedure makes an error?

  • CreatedFebruary 14, 2011
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