Suppose you have a friend who is willing to ask her friends a few questions and then, based on their answers, is willing to assess the probability that those friends will get an A in each of their classes. She always assesses the probability to be either .10 or .90. She has made hundreds of these assessments and has kept track of whether her friends actually received A’s. How would you determine if she is well calibrated?
Answer to relevant QuestionsRefer to the scenarios in Table 16.1 on page 347. Suppose someone stands to gain $ 100,000 in a lawsuit, but there is a 5% chance that something will go wrong and they will get nothing. They are offered a settlement of $ ...Suppose a defense attorney is trying to convince the jury that his client’s wallet, found at the scene of the crime, was actually planted there by his client’s gardener. Here are two possible ways he might present this ...Explain why it would be much more surprising if someone were to flip a coin and get six heads in a row after telling you they were going to do so than it would be to simply watch them flip the coin six times and observe six ...Suppose the sensitivity of a test is .90. Give either the false positive or the false negative rate for the test, and explain which you are providing. Could you provide the other one without additional information? Explain. A statistics professor once made a big blunder by announcing to his class of about 50 students that he was fairly certain that someone in the room would share his birthday. We have already learned that there is a 97% chance ...
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