The chairperson of the department of management at State University wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in production and operations management (POM) next semester, in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated the following enrollment data for the past eight semesters:
Semester Students ......... Enrolled in POM
1 .............. 400
2 .............. 450
3 .............. 350
4 .............. 420
5 .............. 500
6 .............. 575
7 .............. 490
8 .............. 650
a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9.
b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (α = .20) for the enrollment data.
c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAD and indicate the more accurate of the two.