The Consumer Price Index from 1961 through 2007 is in file XR18085, with 1982–1984 = 100 and 1961 coded as t = 1. Construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to the actual values, then use the equation to forecast the CPI for 2008.
Answer to relevant QuestionsRepeat Exercise 18.85, but for a second-order autoregressive forecasting equation. Compare the MAD values for forecasts generated by the two equations and indicate which one is the better fit to these data. Repeat ...What are the differences among risk, uncertainty, and ignorance? Into which category of decision situation do most business decisions fall? In Exercise 19.4, if the probability that his return will be audited is 0.1, which alternative will the consultant choose if he maximizes expected monetary value? What is the most he should be willing to pay for more ...In what way are the minimax regret criterion and the expected opportunity loss (EOL) criterion similar? In what ways do they differ? Repeat Exercise 19.31, under the assumption that the bookstore manager has refused to purchase unsold programs for future games. Repeat exercise An athletic director must order football programs well in advance of game day. ...
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