The file S02_28.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
Answer to relevant QuestionsConsider a random walk model with the following equation: Yt = Yt - 1 + et, where et is a random series with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Specify a moving average model that is equivalent to this random walk model. In ...An automobile dealer is using Holt’s method to forecast weekly car sales. Currently, the level is estimated to be 50 cars per week, and the trend is estimated to be six cars per week. During the current week, 30 cars are ...Suppose that Winters’ method is used to forecast quarterly U.S. retail sales (in billions of dollars). At the end of the first quarter of 2010, the seasonal indexes are: quarter 1, 0.90; quarter 2, 0.95; quarter 3, 0.95; ...The file S12_61.xlsx contains monthly data on the number of nonfarm hires in the U.S. since 2000.a. What evidence is there that seasonality is important in this series? Find seasonal indexes (by any method you like) and ...The file S12_70.xlsx lists annual revenues (in millions of dollars) for Nike. Forecast the company’s revenue in each of the next two years with a linear or exponential trend. Are there any outliers in your predictions for ...
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