The following data contain the quantity (million pounds) of U.S. domestic fish caught annually over a 25-year period as published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

a. Use a 3-year moving average to forecast the quantity of fish for the years 1983 through 2004 for these data. Compute the error of each forecast and then determine the mean absolute deviation of error for the forecast.

b. Use exponential smoothing and α = .2 to forecast the data from 1983 through 2004. Let the forecast for 1981 equal the actual value for 1980. Compute the error of each forecast and then determine the mean absolute deviation of error for the forecast.

c. Compare the results obtained in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which technique seems to perform better?Why?

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