Question

The following data show the number of laptop computers sold each month at a retail store:
Month Unit Sales
January ........................................................ 200
February ...................................................... 230
March .......................................................... 225
April ............................................................ 240
May ............................................................. 210
June ............................................................. 180
July .............................................................. 160
August ......................................................... 310
September.................................................... 320
October ........................................................ 270
November .................................................... 250
December ..................................................... 300
a. Assuming the estimated trend from May to June was -4 and the forecast for June was 190, use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with α= 0.3 and β=0.2 to forecast sales for each of the seven following months: July, August, September, October, November, December, and January.
b. Use regression for the data from January to June to create a forecast for each month from July to the following January.
c. Compare the two sets of forecasts generated in parts a. and b. Which forecast model produces a better MFE? MAD?


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  • CreatedMarch 30, 2015
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