Question

The following table reports the percentage of stocks in a portfolio for nine quarters from 2007 to 2009.
Quarter Stock %
1st—2007 ............ 29.8
2nd—2007 ............ 31.0
3rd—2007 ............ 29.9
4th—2007 ............ 30.1
1st—2008 ............ 32.2
2nd—2008............ 31.5
3rd—2008 ............ 32.0
4th—2008 ............ 31.9
1st—2009 ............ 30.0
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Use exponential smoothing to forecast this time series. Consider smoothing constants of α = .2, .3, and .4. What value of the smoothing constant provides the most accurate forecasts?
c. What is the forecast of the percentage of stocks in a typical portfolio for the second quarter of 2009?


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  • CreatedSeptember 20, 2015
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