The following two plots show exponentially weighted moving averages of the percentage change in the US gross
Question:
(a) Which weight w do you think produces a better summary of the underlying trend in the percentage changes in GNP? Explain your choice.
(b) Which EWMA would you prefer to use to fore-cast the next value of this series (second quarter of 2012)?
(c) How accurate would you expect your forecast for GNP to be? From looking at these plots, suggest a range.
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Related Book For
Statistics For Business Decision Making And Analysis
ISBN: 9780321890269
2nd Edition
Authors: Robert Stine, Dean Foster
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