The Gallup organization periodically asks the following question: If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be a woman, would you vote for that person? Here is a time series plot of the percentage answering “yes” versus the year of the (20th) century. The least squares trend line is given by: yt = 5.58 + 0.999Year, where Year = 37, 45, . . . 99 to represent the years during which the survey was given.
a) The R2 for this trend line is 94%. A student decided to use this linear model to obtain a forecast for the percent who will respond “yes” in 2012. What value should the student use for Year?
b) Find the predicted value for the year 2012. Is it realistic?

  • CreatedMay 15, 2015
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