The method of control variates is a technique for reducing the variance of a simulation estimator. Suppose

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The method of control variates is a technique for reducing the variance of a simulation estimator. Suppose that we wish to estimate θ = E(W). A control variate is another random variable V that is positively correlated with W and whose mean μ we know. Then, for every constant k > 0, E(W ˆ’ kV + kμ) = θ. Also, if k is chosen carefully, Var(W ˆ’ kV + kμ) W(i) = g(X(i))/f(X(i)),
V(i) = h(X(i))/f(X(i)),
Y(i) = W(i) ˆ’ kV(i),
for all i. Our estimator of ˆ« g(x) dx is then
Y) + kc. Z=E

a. Prove that E(Z) = ˆ« g(x) dx.
b. Let Var(W(i)) = σ2W and Var(V(i)) = σ2V . Let ρ be the correlation between W(i) and V(i). Prove that the value of k that makes Var(Z) the smallest is k = σWρ/σV.

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Probability And Statistics

ISBN: 9780321500465

4th Edition

Authors: Morris H. DeGroot, Mark J. Schervish

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