# Question

The number of diners per quarter eating at your après-ski restaurant has been examined using trend-seasonal analysis. The quarterly seasonal indexes are 1.45, 0.55, 0.72, and 1.26 for quarters 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. A linear trend has been estimated as 5,423 + 408 (Quarter number), where the quarter number starts at 1 in the first quarter of 2007 and increases by 1 each successive quarter.

a.* Find the seasonally adjusted forecast value for the first quarter of 2014.

b. Find the seasonally adjusted forecast value for the second quarter of 2014.

c. Why is the seasonally adjusted forecast larger in the second quarter, in which you would expect fewer skiers coming to dinner?

d.* Find the forecast value for the first quarter of 2014.

e. Find the forecast value for the second quarter of 2014.

f. On a seasonally adjusted basis, according to this estimated linear trend, how many more diners do you expect to serve each quarter compared to the previous quarter?

g. Your strategic business plan includes a major expansion project when the number of diners reaches 80,000 per year. In which calendar year will this first happen, according to your forecasts?

a.* Find the seasonally adjusted forecast value for the first quarter of 2014.

b. Find the seasonally adjusted forecast value for the second quarter of 2014.

c. Why is the seasonally adjusted forecast larger in the second quarter, in which you would expect fewer skiers coming to dinner?

d.* Find the forecast value for the first quarter of 2014.

e. Find the forecast value for the second quarter of 2014.

f. On a seasonally adjusted basis, according to this estimated linear trend, how many more diners do you expect to serve each quarter compared to the previous quarter?

g. Your strategic business plan includes a major expansion project when the number of diners reaches 80,000 per year. In which calendar year will this first happen, according to your forecasts?

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