The Office of Personnel Management has been asked to evaluate the clerical exam that is used for the state of Washington. They have permission to run a quasi-experiment. One hundred persons are hired for clerical positions. They are also given the clerical exam but the exam scores are not used for hiring or placement. After the six-month probationary period, the supervisors of these persons are asked to recommend that the clerical worker be made a permanent hire or be terminated. This decision is the dependent variable. It is coded 1 if the person is hired and 0 if the person is terminated. The independent variable is the person’s score on the clerical exam. Scores can range from 0 to 100. A regression yields the following result:
Interpret the slope, intercept, and coefficient of determination. What can you say about the relationship between the exam and job performance? What is the probability that a person who scores 50 on the exam will be made a permanent employee? Place a 95% confidence limit around this estimate.
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