The Siler Construction Company is about to bid on a new industrial construction project. To formulate their bid, the company needs to estimate the time required for the project. Based on past experience, management expects that the project will require at least 24 months, and could take as long as 48 months if there are complications. The most likely scenario is that the project will require 30 months.
a. Assume that the actual time for the project can be approximated using a triangular probability distribution. What is the probability that the project will take less than 30 months?
b. What is the probability that the project will take between 28 and 32 months?
c. To submit a competitive bid, the company believes that if the project takes more than 36 months, then the company will lose money on the project. Management does not want to bid on the project if there is greater than a 25% chance that they will lose money on this project. Should the company bid on this project?