The yield on a general obligation bond for the city of Davenport fluctuates with the market. The monthly quotations for 2006 are given in Table P-9.
Table P-9
MonthYield
January ……............. 9.29
February ……........... 9.99
March ……...............10.16
April ……................. 10.25
May …….................. 10.61
June …….................. 11.07
July …….................. 11.52
August…….............11.09
September ……........10.80
October …….............10.50
November …….........10.86
December …….......... 9.97
a. Find the forecast value of the yield for the obligation bonds for each month, starting with April, using a three-month moving average.
b. Find the forecast value of the yield for the obligation bonds for each month, starting with June, using a five-month moving average.
c. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MAD.
d. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MSE.
e. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MAPE.
f. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MPE.
g. Forecast the yield for January 2007 using the better technique.