Transplant operations have become routine. One common transplant operation is for kidneys. The most dangerous aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may reject the new organ. Several new drugs are available for such circum-stances, and the earlier the drug is administered, the higher the probability of averting rejection. The New England Journal of Medicine recently reported the development of a new urine test to detect early warning signs that the body is rejecting a transplanted kidney. However, like most other tests, the new test is not perfect. When the test is conducted on someone whose kidney will be rejected, approximately one out of five tests will be negative (i.e., the test is wrong). When the test is conducted on a person whose kidney will not be rejected, 8% will show a positive test result (i.e., another incorrect result). Physicians know that in about 35% of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the organ. Suppose that the test was performed and the test is positive (indicating early warning of rejection).
What is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the kidney?

  • CreatedFebruary 03, 2015
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