Two experienced managers at Wilson Boat, Inc. are resisting the introduction of a computerized exponential smoothing system, claiming that their judgmental forecasts are much better than any computer could do. Their past record of predictions is as follows (these data can also be found on the worksheet C11P14 in the OM4 Data Workbook):

a. How would the manager€™s forecast compare to a single exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.4?
b. Based on whatever calculations you think appropriate, are the manager€™s judgmental forecasts performing satisfactory?
c. What other criteria should be used to select a forecasting method for this company?

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Week Actual Demand Manager's Forecast 4.000 4,200 4,200 3,000 3.800 5,000 5,600 4,400 5,000 4,800 4,500 5,000 4.000 3,800 3,600 4.000 5,000 4,800 4.000 5,000 10