# Question

Using the data file Housing Starts, estimate autoregressive models of orders 1 through 4. Use the method of this section to test the hypothesis that the order of the autoregression is p – 1 against the alternative that the order is p, with a significance level of 10%. Select one of these models, and calculate forecasts of housing starts for the next 5 years. Draw a time plot showing the original observations together with the forecasts. Would different forecasts result if a significance level of 5% was used for the tests of autoregressive order?

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